It is possible, if not likely, the 2019-20 regular season will end as is.
With that in mind, I thought it’d be fun to put together a series looking at pending free agents whose stock rose – and dropped – this season.
We’ll start by looking at three forwards whose value is rising heading into free agency.
Tyler Toffoli – Vancouver/Los Angeles
Toffoli’s 2018-19 campaign was somewhat of a disaster. He scored 13 goals and finished with 34 points in 82 games, both of which were career lows over a full season.
Normally an efficient 5v5 producer, Toffoli was anything but. He averaged just .34 goals/60 and 1.23 points/60. Those are the kind of numbers you’d expect to see from a 3rd/4th line tweener, not a 26-year-old with Toffoli’s pedigree.
Toffoli needed to respond with a strong season in order to set himself up for a healthy payday as a free agent. He did just that.
Toffoli started the redemption tour in LA, tallying 18 goals and 34 points in 58 games. He produced at a 1st line clip (.98 goals/60, 1.97 points/60) despite playing for a horrible team that struggled mightily to score.
Following a trade, he had no problem adjusting to a new home in Vancouver, either, as he piled up 10 points in 10 games before the season was brought to a halt.
All told, Toffoli tallied 24 goals and 44 points in 68 games split between the Kings and Canucks. That equates to 29 goals and 53 points over a full season.
Toffoli posted those numbers while tilting the ice in his team’s favor like few others. Only 10 forwards in the NHL owned a Corsi For% higher than Toffoli (56.15%), and his Expected Goals For% was actually higher than his CF%.
He drove play at an elite rate while proving he can still produce points, especially at 5v5. Toffoli found the scoresheet more times in that game state than bonafide stars like John Tavares, Claude Giroux, and Patrice Bergeron.
Toffoli had a very strong season across the board and should be rewarded handsomely in a few month’s time.
Tyler Ennis – Ottawa/Edmonton
Ennis signed a cheap, one-year deal with Ottawa in order to put himself in a situation where he’d be afforded a real opportunity to play. That sure paid dividends; Ennis put together his best season in years.
He piled up 13 goals and 33 points in 61 games prior to being traded to Edmonton (he had four points in nine games there). Ennis wasn’t just productive because he was given more minutes on a bad team. He was efficient.
Ennis averaged 1.91 points/60 with Ottawa (1.84 thus far with Edmonton). That matched Jaden Schwartz and Sam Reinhart, and was the highest rate he’s produced at since 2011-12 with the Buffalo Sabres.
You don’t bring Ennis in to provide plus-defense or a physical presence. You bring him in to produce offense. He did that in spades this season and is going to get a nice raise from $800K as a result.
Nick Cousins – Montreal/Vegas
A year ago Cousins set a career-high with 27 points in 81 games for Arizona. He was on pace to breeze past that number this season, accumulating 25 points through 65 games.
Impressively, Cousins recorded 20 of his 25 points at 5v5. That put him on level terms with Jamie Benn, Mikael Granlund, and Viktor Arvidsson while besting Jeff Skinner, Alex Radulov, and Phil Kessel.
He was quite productive and, simply put, good things happened when he was out there. Montreal/Vegas combined to control a 54.8% of the attempts and 56.98 of the expected goals with Cousins on the ice.
Those numbers are remarkably strong, even factoring in the strong 5v5 teams he played for.
I’m not trying to make Cousins out to be Connor McDavid. However, based on the 5v5 production and his on-ice profile, he should best the one-year, $1 million contract he penned last summer.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
