Sergei Bobrovsky not living up to his massive contract
Last season the Florida Panthers missed the playoffs by 12 points despite finishing 9th in league scoring.
Why?
In a word, goaltending.
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer, and youngster Sam Montembeault were consistently subpar. While the team had its share of issues, getting a save was by far the biggest.
In an effort to change that, the Panthers backed up the brinks truck and handed former Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky a $70 million contract.
Problem solved, right? Apparently not.
Bobrovsky has struggled mightily in the early going, especially at 5v5.
As it stands, 33 netminders have manned the crease for at least 400 minutes in that game state. Put another way, essentially each team’s starter and a couple of premium backups.
Bobrovsky ranks 32nd – ahead of only Martin Jones – with a .883 save percentage. He has conceded 33 times despite the team only giving up 24.18 expected goals against in front of him.
As a whole, the Panthers sit 30th in goals against/60 despite ranking top-7 in terms of suppressing shot attempts (3rd) and chances (7th). They’re not giving up goals because they can’t defend. They’re giving up goals because Bobrovsky can’t stop a beach ball.
That’s a big problem considering a) Bobrovsky is only in Year 1 of a monster contract and; b) Monteambeault’s struggles have unsurprisingly continued.
If Bobrovsky doesn’t dig himself out of this hole and start performing much better, goaltending is once again going to force an otherwise respectable Panthers team to fall well short of a playoff spot.
Buyer beware with the St. Louis Blues
Last year’s Stanley Cup winners have picked up right where they left off, piling up the wins.
They own a 12-3-3 record, have accumulated 27 points (2nd most), and sit tied for 1st with the 2017-18 champions in regulation + overtime victories. On paper, the Blues couldn’t ask for a better start.
Their underlying numbers suggest it may be wise to hold off planning another parade. At least for now.
The Blues are controlling just 47.79% of the scoring chances at 5v5. Not god awful, but hardly what you’d expect to see from a contender.
What’s really concerning is how they fare when it comes to Grade A chances. They have generated just 109, which is dead last in the NHL, while opponents have mustered up 159. They’re only getting a 40.67% share of the high-danger looks.
For a perspective of how dreadful that is, last year’s 32-win Detroit Red Wings team controlled 43.80% of the Grade A chances at 5v5.
If the Blues are getting ~four of every 10 premium looks, why do they keep winning?
Special teams. The Blues sit tied for 1st in power-play markers, and only six teams have given up fewer goals while shorthanded. They’re making a ton of noise there.
Strong play in uneven game states and excellent goaltending will keep you competitive (clearly) but getting caved in at 5v5 isn’t a recipe for success long-term – especially in the playoffs when refs tend to put the whistles away unless absolutely necessary.
If their play at 5v5 doesn’t improve drastically, the Blues almost certainly aren’t going find themselves at or near the top of the league come April. They simply must be better.
Luckily for Blues fans, the team had no problem flipping the switch mid-season a year ago. We’ll see if they can do it again.
Numbers via NaturalStatTrick.com
