John Carlson re-signed with the Washington Capitals over the weekend. This contract pays him $64 million over eight years. There exists some interesting signing bonuses including the lockout proof year.
Carlson comes off a career year and an excellent playoff run. Let us take a slightly deeper look at what the defenseman does and does not bring to the table.
The PROS of John Carlson
One of the biggest aspects of his game is his ability on the power play. That improved dramatically this season. Consider Carlson produced 32 points (four goals, 28 assists) on the man advantage. Yes, it is a contract year. However, he hovered consistently around 15-20 power play points. If one splits the difference, given his time on ice increase (nearly 25:00 ATOI), then that is still good for now. His shooting percentage has remained between 4.5-6.5%. Also, one of the big pet peeves was shooting the puck. Carlson averaged nearly three shots on net in 2017-18.
Goal production has been around 10-15 goals a year per 82 game season. With the supporting cast in place, it was easy for Carlson to decide to stay. His meal ticket is players like Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Ovechkin. This makes perfect sense. There were slight improvements in metrics which slipped defensively (that is a concern for later).
The one avenue which sold everything was his playoff performance. If Washington gets that level from Carlson during the season, this contract improves in quality. It is not just that the defenseman produced 20 points in 24 games. The defenseman was more sound in his own end, even in pressure situations.
He is the best offensive defenseman on the Capitals. Other players like Matt Niskanen and Dmitry Orlov slot into their more defensive roles which helps. Carlson’s primary role is of a point producer, and he was consistent up until last year. Last year, the defenseman took it to another level with almost 70 points.
Now, lies just a few questions.
The CONS of John Carlson
Again, the first question is sustainability given the contract. He is being paid $8 million a year now. Also, the structure of the deal funnels more money early which is very common, but is Carlson worthy of that price tag? Is Oliver Ekman-Larsson for that matter (who is expected to ink an eight-year, $66 million deal)? These are great questions. The salary cap stands at $79.5 million, so Carlson’s salary will be a hair more than 10% of the team’s cap. As the cap goes up, Carlson’s age curve dictates the production likely will trend down. That is a problem.
Possession metrics improved very slightly for Carlson, but the team penalty kill and overall even strength metrics declined (-4% to +1% relative though). It did improve slightly for the playoffs. However, with a new coach in charge (Barry Trotz went to Brooklyn), will the system be completely the same? Can they execute in the same way after winning a Stanley Cup?
The next argument is that Carlson is not even the first or second best defenseman on his team. Defensively there is not much of an argument there, and at times, Carlson is his own worst enemy. Think of him as a Morgan Rielly but with way more power play time. Rielly has slightly better numbers at even strength which does not typically bode well once past the age of 28 (referring to Carlson).
The realistic window for the Washington defenseman is the next three seasons. If he can produce like last season, then the contract is worth it. Typically in contract curves, years 1-3 are pretty good, a decline in and 4-5, and then 6-8 are ugly. There are exceptions. See Brent Seabrook as a great example. Seabrook carries a $6.875 million cap hit for six more seasons.
Projections for John Carlson
This becomes the age-old question. How do you speculate after a breakout year? It is not easy and most just hedge and split differences. Presuming Washington keeps mostly everyone, has an expected Stanley Cup hangover, and still makes the playoffs, here is what could happen.
Carlson’s expected point total should be in the 50-60 range. Again, any drop in shots and chances and those numbers go out the window. He should hit 200+ shots and 400+ shot attempts again. Washington may even rely on him more on the power play for better or for worse. It did work enough in the playoffs (four power play tallies). His skating is okay for now, but as the contract goes on, that will regress quickly. That is for another day.
His lower end is 40-50 points, and his high end is 60-70 points. Expect a better second half for the defenseman and the team as well. One final caveat. No player appears to be worth this kind of contract so stay tuned. Carlson may be or maybe not.
