For better or for worse, Tyler Myers polarizes the 2019 NHL Free Agent class among defensemen. This is a player who someone will pay. Now, the goal is to go into the why and what is projected. After that, we will present what should happen.
The Tyler Myers Contract Year
It was a strange year in Winnipeg and an ending no one was happy about. The Jets bounced from the playoffs by the eventual champion – St. Louis Blues. Injuries hampered Winnipeg to the point where Tyler Myers had to play top-pairing minutes. Needless to say, it did not end well.
His possession metric numbers came in at around -0.7% of the team average. That was not bad at all for the Winnipeg Jets. Tyler Myers, overall, continued to grow.
Lost in this season was the fact that Winnipeg sheltered Myers whenever they could. He was deployed in the offensive zone over 56% of the time. That is a high percentage. Overall, the defenseman wound up with 31 points in 80 games while playing just over 20 minutes a night (22 a game over the second half).
It was during that second half where one could see the holes still prevalent in his game. Myers made too many mistakes defensively. Also, blown opportunities offensively which would have been capitalized on by players like Jacob Trouba, Dustin Byfuglien, or Josh Morrissey.
When Myers played as a fourth or fifth defenseman, he fared okay. However, when the role elevated, he lacked the ability in his game to step up adequately.
Even in the playoffs against St. Louis with reduced minutes, he performed mostly average at best with zero points in six games. Game 5 showed the only improvement and that was followed by a stinker in Game 6.
The diminished market creates inflated Tyler Myers demand
Despite all this, teams contemplate paying the defenseman to play in a top-four or even top-pairing role. The numbers and advanced stats do not lie. At even strength, Myers was a below average to sometimes average defenseman.
Bill Comeau’s skater visualizations illustrate this succinctly. Myers comes in with a game score of 45 at even strength. His shooting numbers are solid but the possession metrics relative to other defenseman are bottom pairing level. The relative metrics against becoming the real issue as the “for” numbers are not bad.
His “usage context” indicates the average quality of competition and way fewer defensive zone starts. Furthermore, his penalty differential is among the worst of the worst as far as blueliners (7th worst).
When fully examining this, the question is how teams believe he is worth more than $5.5 million AAV? That was the previous contract. Even Evolving Wild projects Myers at just over $6 million for seven years. That’s assuming a free agent overpay of around 30%.
Consequently, Myers expects to earn around $7 million AAV sound ludicrous and yet teams are prepared to toss that kind of money at the 29-year old blueliner. Would any general manager pay a 4-5 slot defenseman that kind of money? Apparently, that answer in this free-agent market is yes.
Granted, the unrestricted free agent market for defensemen is thin at best but there are other options and at cheaper rates. Simply, Tyler Myers’ demand inflates as a product of the shallow unrestricted free agent market and little else.
