After a spectacular 61-point rookie campaign, the world was expected of Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander during his second full year in the NHL.
We’re more than 25% through the 2017-18 season and so far Nylander hasn’t delivered us the world – at least not yet.
He has taken a step back in points per game (.75 to .64) as well as goals per game (.27 to .18). Nylander has been on the receiving end of some criticism from his coach, and many who cover the team, as a result. Heck, his name has even popped up in trade rumors (which is very dumb, but that’s a story for another day).
While it’s easy to pour it on a young, skilled, forward who is so good he makes it look like he’s not even trying, I don’t think the early decline in production reflects how Nylander has played. Far from it. A case can be made that he’s been more dangerous offensively than a year ago.
Don’t believe me? Take a look at how many chances and high-danger chances per game he generated at 5v5, and overall, last season compared to this year.
The sample size of 22 games isn’t large but given Nylander is 21-years-old and still improving, it’s probably no coincidence his numbers are up across the board.
Everyone has their theories as to why Nylander’s numbers are down and why he’s “struggling” to create offense but the answer, I think, is simply a lack of luck.
At 5v5, Nylander is tied for 22nd in scoring chances with 48 – more than stars like Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Patrik Laine, and Sidney Crosby – and he has one goal to show for it. Think about that for a second. One of the most talented young players in the game has converted on one of his 48 chances. The guy from the corner store can do that.
Of the 23 other players who have recorded 48 or more chances, only Tyler Seguin (3) has fewer than four goals.
To put into perspective how unlucky Nylander has been, he’s one of seven players in the NHL who has a) recorded 35+ chances at 5v5 and; b) scored one goal or less. Of that group, no player has had more scoring opportunities than Nylander.
Considering Nylander scored a 5v5 goal for every ~12 chances he had a season ago and, again, is still improving, I am comfortable saying he’ll finish with a lot more regularity moving forward.
Even if he doesn’t – he will, but let’s pretend we live in a world where he’ll score one goal per 48 chances for an entire season – it’s not as if he isn’t still a damn good player driving the team towards positive results.
With Nylander on the ice at 5v5, the Maple Leafs have out-scored the opposition 17-6 (73.91 Goals For%) and controlled a larger share of the shot attempts and scoring chances than they have without him.
Pretty much any statistic, on-ice or individual, paints a positive picture of Nylander and suggests he is playing very, very well.
Should that continue, I think it’s only a matter of time before that shows in the counting stats.
Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
