Tampa Bay Lightning 2015-16 Season Primer

Looking at the Tampa Bay Lightning heading into this season – outlook, potential lines, roster, top prospects, draft history, stats and season schedule.

Projected 2015-16 Range: 1st in the Atlantic, 2nd in the Eastern Conference, 4th in the NHL
2014-15 record: 50-24-8, 108 points (2nd in the Atlantic Division, 3rd in the East, 5th in the league)
2014-15 Outcome: Lost in the Stanley Cup Final to Chicago.

Total Cap Hit: $72,369,598
Total Salaries: $74,319,363
Cap Space: +$969,598

Source: General Fanager

In: Tye McGinn, LW/RW (FA – Ari), Jeff Tambellini, LW/RW (FA-Europe), Erik Condra, RW/LW (FA – Ott), Matt Taormina, D (FA-Minors), Daniel Walcott, D (T – NYR)

Out: Jean-Philippe Cote, D (FA-Europe), Mark Barberio, D (FA – Mtl), Allen York, G (FA-Minors)

Source: Sports Forecaster

Outlook for the Season:

They were close.

The Lightning stormed through the playoffs last season, bolting into the Stanley Cup Final before bowing out to the Chicago Blackhawks.

But even in the loss in the Cup Final, there was still much to celebrate.

Tampa Bay boasted four players above the 60-point mark, witnessed the birth of the highly-skilled “Triplets” line, enjoyed competent goaltending from their top duo in net, and witnessed the development of perhaps the NHL’s best overall defensive unit led by Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman. The Bolts are well-positioned to build from last season’s success, making the team an early season Cup contender.

While the Lightning do seem poised to make a spirited run through the Eastern Conference again this season, one storyline has already come to dominate headlines in Tampa Bay: Will Steven Stamkos re-sign? Stamkos is the all-world talent and scoring leader for the Bolts. Though the team boasts depth on offense and defense, the loss of the team’s clear superstar would be a staggering blow.

This season will be a crucial one in defining the Lightning franchise for years to come.

At forward, the Lightning have a varied attack that overwhelms opponents in waves. The scoring lines features the Triplets – Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat – who combined last season to give fits to goaltenders around the league. Tyler Johnson, the undrafted, pint-sized engine for the line, has developed into a top-tier offensive talent.

His scoring rates are elite and his possession work is excellent for a top-line scorer. He’s known as an intelligent play-reader who skates gracefully and has yet untapped potential as a scorer. His instant chemistry with his linemates elevates his overall offensive ability.

22-year-old winger Nikita Kucherov is an explosive skater with excellent one-on-one maneuvers who is blossoming into a devastating scorer.

With excellent individual offensive rates and superb puck possession numbers, Kucherov was one of 2014-15’s most effective and underrated all-around talents. He’s an indispensable member of the Triplets line and still has the potential to develop even further.

Palat, the least-heralded member of the Lightning’s scoring trio, is a creative and elusive playmaker. Beyond his natural offensive contributions, he may be the best shot suppressor in the group, managing the most impressive Corsi Against per 60 minutes of ice time. At 24 years old, the Czech-native is a young and valuable member of the immense forward depth in Tampa Bay.

While the Lightning have great depth up front, their defense core may be the team’s greatest strength. Led by hulking two-way defender Victor Hedman, the team is set with a young, all-purpose workhorse.

Though Hedman has yet to enjoy a season of top-end first-pairing minutes, his rate stats are excellent. He combines excellent offensive production along with top-tier defensive play. The 6’6, 230 lbs. Swede is already known as a strong skating, shutdown defender and owns still-developing offensive punch. He’s the team’s clear number one blue liner.

Anton Stralman has finally started to receive the accolades he deserves. Though he does not offer major offensive production, his possession work is elite.

Blessed with the ability to manage the puck, Stralman capably creates shot attempts for the team while suppressing shots against at a league-best rate. He’s the perfect complementary defender and a quietly effective member of Tampa’s excellent blue line.

Though somewhat forgotten in the mix of exciting big-name players, Jason Garrison has found his niche as a high-quality top-four defenseman. He offers top-pair quality offensive contributions and has settled in as a reliable puck manager, offering reasonable rates of shot generation and suppression.

In net, Ben Bishop has emerged as a mid-range starting goaltender, capable of keeping the Lightning in games and stealing wins here or there. Compared with the top 25 goalies in minutes played over the past three years, Bishop is a middle-tier netminder in traditional save percentage, adjusted save percentage, and high danger save percentage.

Bishop is known as fluid, aggressive netminder with excellent puck-handling skills and will continue to offer stability in net for the excellent group in front of him.

Trending Up:

Jonathan Drouin – After scoring 32 points in 70 games, Drouin is poised to take another step forward this season, possibly as a winger on Stamkos’ line. If Drouin does stick with Stamkos, his incredible vision, fluid stickhandling, excellent puck control, and playmaking sense will lead to a big surge in offensive production. It’s easy to imagine Drouin topping 50 points in 2015-16 and solidifying himself as one of the game’s top young stars.

Trending Down:

Ryan Callahan – Signed until 2019-20 at an AAV of $5.8 million, Callahan has become a financial anchor for the Lightning. Now 30 years old, Callahan offensive play has slipped and his defensive work is unreliable. He’s an uncomfortable top-six fit in Tampa and is a candidate to be moved prior to his no-move clause, which begins in 2018.

Trade Deadline Outlook:  

Tampa Bay is poised to take another run at the Stanley Cup. The team is well-equipped at forward, defense, and in goal, boasting a great mix of young talent and more experienced players throughout the lineup. Barring some unbelievable bad fortune, this team will undoubtedly be on the hunt for experienced depth at the trade deadline – likely bottom six players or bottom pair defensemen.

Andrei Vasilevskiy showed enough mettle to step in and cover for Bishop during the Cup Final last year. If he is slow to return from his injury, the Lightning may be tempted to hunt for an experienced backup goalie.

Projected 2015-16 Range: 1st in the Atlantic, 2nd in the Eastern Conference, 4th in the NHL

Written by Sean Tierney, who can be found @SeanTierneyTSS

Lightning: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Alex Killorn – Steven Stamkos – Ryan Callahan
Ondrej Palat – Tyler Johnson – Nikita Kucherov
Jonathan Drouin – Valtteri Filppula – Cedric Paquette
Erik Condra – Brian Boyle – J.T. Brown
Tye McGinn – Vladislav Namestnikov

Victor Hedman – Anton Stralman
Braydon Coburn – Jason Garrison
Andrej Sustr – Matt Carle
Nikita Nesterov

Ben Bishop
Andrei Vasilevskiy (injured)
Kristers Gudlevskis

Lightning: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Tampa Bay Lightning prospect lists heading into the season.

* Different sites have different guidelines for who is a ‘prospect.’

A look at the Tampa Bay Lightning drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Lightning: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Tampa Bay Lightning 2014-15 player stats.

Lightning: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Tampa Bay Lightning 2015-16 schedule.

Lightning: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects and Draft History | Stats | Schedule