And now, phase two of free agency sets in.
On July 1st, the NHL’s unrestricted free agency period began, with a flurry of signings in the first few hours
Four hours into Free Agency and we have added 72 contracts worth $389M to https://t.co/XpdrFRgPbt pic.twitter.com/NfbPBTQQsV
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) July 1, 2017
However, this UFA crop lacked the star power and depth of previous free agent classes and GMs seemed to succeed in remaining somewhat sensible regarding spending. Nonetheless, hotly pursued players like Kevin Shattenkirk, Martin Hanzal, Karl Alzner, Nick Bonino, Dimitry Kulikov, and Justin Williams found new homes within the first few hours of free agency, while the likes of Patrick Marleau and Alex Radulov followed soon after.
But now, days after the free agent frenzy has subsided and most of the marquee names have signed, remaining UFAs settle into a holding pattern. Many teams have much less salary cap space to add players and so a hunt for bargain contracts begins.
Is there any talent left to acquire among the remaining UFAs? Which players would teams be wise to target? Are there bargains to be found?
Let’s dive in.
Zig when they zag – Bucking the age curve to uncover free agent finds
Two summers ago, Cam Lawrence (who has worked for the Florida Panthers over the past two seasons) wrote on the impact of aging. His work found that, on average, peak age for forwards and defensemen was around their age-24 season, with a plateau lasting until approximately 28 years old before a steady decline.
This has implications for free agents. Typically, players do not reach unrestricted free agency until they are 27 years old, which means that the typical UFA is almost out of their prime and ready to begin the decline phase of their career. One could argue that avoiding UFAs altogether would usually be wise – GMs would avoid long-term deals with players whose performances were just about to drop-off.
But the bargains in this year’s free agent group buck that trend. Despite advancing age, a few remaining UFAs have bucked the age curve, remaining productive past their peaks. As a bonus, these players are still in search of new homes may be willing to accept contracts that are less than their true value as the NHL moves towards youth and speed.
Perhaps the best example of a free agent who is past-peak, still productive, and perhaps available at a discount is future Hall-of-Fame winger Jaromir Jagr.
Jaromir Jagr
*view the tweet here.
A couple of words on the components to this signing card.
Salary projections are courtesy of Matt Cane, an analyst who does public work for Hockey Graphs and Winners View. You can check out work on the salary projections here and here.
The “playing style” noted next to the player’s name is based on research done by Ryan Stimson. His work relied on passing data, which clustered players into “styles” based on their on-ice contributions.
The goals above replacement (GAR) comparables list is generated based on data created by Dawson Sprigings. His GAR data shows how players contribute to even-strength offense, defense, power play offense, avoiding penalty takes, drawing penalties against, and faceoffs. You can read more about his detailed work here.
So, what does the view say about Jagr?
Now 45 years old, the ageless wonder was not part of the Florida Panthers’ new direction and is in search of a new home. Despite being in another stratosphere age-wise, Jagr contributes to provide balanced offense (contributing through passing and goal-scoring). His Corsi differential per 60 minutes last season was excellent (almost +10), and his on-ice goals-for percentage (GF%) was excellent.
Better still is the list of players who contributed similar levels of on-ice value last year; Alex Ovechkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Claude Giroux, and Ryan Johansen. If any of these skaters were UFAs, they would command huge paydays. Yet Jagr’s salary projection is only about $3.5 million per year.
As a stopgap top-six option, Jagr still has something to offer to a team. And, though we don’t have data to quantify it, he’d almost certainly be a fan favourite.
Jussi Jokinen
*view tweet here.
Though the former shootout specialist hasn’t been relied on as much over the past couple of seasons, Jokinen continues to offer great shot contributions. His goals-for percentage last year was awful but was well-below his expected GF%, which suggests he was very unlucky.
Now 34 years old, Jokinen’s value is as a bottom-six player who contributes strong defensive impact (EVD) while offering some even-strength offense too. His comparable players list includes the likes of Henrik Sedin and Rick Nash. He won’t be nearly as flashy as either of those players but he’s also available for a fraction of their price tags.
P.A. Parenteau
*check the tweet here.
As usual, Parenteau is in search of a new team this off-season after finishing last year in a depth role with the Stanley Cup Finalist Nashville Predators. Though PAP has a reputation as an offensive player, his value last year was primarily based on defensive contributions. Still, Parenteau is only a season removed from a 20-goal campaign with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The 34 year old free agent winger sported a positive shot-share last year (again) and his goals-for percentage should’ve been much higher. For a team looking to round out its bottom-six with a reliable contributor, PAP would be a cheap and wise investment.
Thomas Vanek
*view tweet here.
About as one-dimensional as they come. The 33-year old Thomas Vanek is on the free agent market again after splitting time between Detroit and Florida last year. The veteran scorer contributed excellent even-strength offense and his GAR comparables includes the newest Dallas Stars forward, Alex Radulov.
That’s the good.
On the bad side, Vanek’s reputation as a poor defensive player is verified by the data. His even-strength defense (EVD) is a large red (negative) bar. His Corsi differential was abysmal last year and his GF% outperformed expectation. Vanek is, no doubt, a flawed player.
Still, projected to sign at approximately $3.7 million per season, Vanek can reasonably be expected to provide as much offensive value as Radulov but at less cost and much less term. If Vanek signed with a team that played a strong defensive structure, or if Vanek was matched with a reliable defensive linemate, there’s a chance for a bargain here.
Conclusion
Every off-season, the free agency period offers teams a chance to remodel their roster and address team needs. In the wake of the big spending on July 1st, many useful players remain available. This summer, a wise GM with a little cap space would be wise to explore some veteran options like Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen, PA Parenteau, or Thomas Vanek. Though these players are past prime, they continue to be productive on-ice contributors. Better still, these players won’t command the term or investment that was needed to ink the bigger free agent names like Patrick Marleau or Alex Radulov.
There’s some value here.
