Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
With the 2016-17 NHL campaign just around the corner let’s look at some young, up-and-coming players poised to breakout this coming season.
David Pastrnak – Boston Bruins
If David Pastrnak stays healthy I think the sky is the limit for him in 2016-17 and beyond.
He has dealt with some injury problems over the last couple seasons but when healthy he has produced at a very good clip. He put up 27 points in 46 regular season game as an 18-year-old rookie. As a 19-year-old he registered 15 goals and 26 points in 51 games.
On the surface those totals won’t ‘wow’ anyone but he has averaged 45 points per 82 games as a teenager, which is remarkably impressive. What’s even more impressive is how efficient he has been at 5 v 5.
In Pastrnak’s first two seasons he has averaged 2.24 points per 60 minutes played at 5 v 5. That ranks him 13th in the NHL among all forwards to play at least 1,200 minutes over that span. Some names Pastrnak has out performed (in terms of efficiency) in that span include Tyler Toffoli, John Tavares, Taylor Hall, Joe Thornton, Corey Perry, Anze Kopitar and Johnny Gaudreau, among many others.
With more minutes, which will come if he stays healthy, Pastrnak should be able to pile up the points in 2016-17.
Sam Bennett – Calgary Flames
Despite ranking 8th on the Flames among forwards in ice time per game (including Jiri Hudler, who was traded at the deadline), Sam Bennett still managed to record 18 goals and 36 points in 77 games as a 19-year-old playing on a bad hockey team. Of his 18 goals, 14 were at 5 v 5, so it wasn’t as if he was relying on power play time to make his mark.
One impressive aspect about Bennett’s 5 v 5 totals is that he produced while moving up and down the lineup on a frequent basis. Bennett played almost 1,000 5 v 5 minutes last season, yet Michael Frolik was his most frequent linemate (they played 360 minutes together). Bennett played at least 100 5 v 5 minutes with nine different forwards, so he never had steady linemates, especially of quality, to rely on and he still produced at a good clip.
With more ice time, a better coach behind the bench and anything resembling consistent linemates, Bennett should take off this season.
Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues
Robby Fabbri was sort of eased into the lineup when he cracked the St. Louis Blues, which isn’t surprising given the amount of talent and depth they have up front. He tallied a very respectable, but not spectacular 25 points in his first 58 NHL games (35 per 82) while playing somewhat limited minutes. Towards the end of the season he was given more opportunity, in part due to injuries, and he took off in a big way.
In Fabbri’s final 14 regular season games he tallied 12 points. He carried his strong play into the playoffs where he tallied 15 points in 20 games. That’s 27 points in 34 games, which equates to 65 points over an 82-game schedule.
I don’t know that he’s ready to sustain that kind of scoring pace just yet but, if he stays healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t at least surpass the 50 point plateau in 2016-17.
Jonathan Drouin – Tampa Bay Lightning
Drouin is perhaps the easiest breakout player to predict. His rate stats were always good and they suggested as soon as he was given consistent minutes and linemates he would produce. In large part due to injuries, Drouin was finally given a legitimate shot in the playoffs and he came through in a big way tallying 14 points in 17 contests.
The coaching staff has finally taken the leash off of Drouin, and there is a ton of talent around him in Tampa Bay, so there’s no reason he shouldn’t be an impact player come October.
Andre Burakovsky – Washington Capitals
Burakovsky is another player I’m expecting big things from next season. Despite seeing somewhat limited ice last year, Burakovsky still managed to produce 17 goals 38 points in 79 regular season games.
Those counting totals won’t ‘wow’ anyone, but his 5 v 5 numbers certainly will. Burakovsky scored all but one of his goals at 5 v 5 and averaged 1.98 points per 60 minutes in that game state. For comparison sake, Nicklas Backstrom averaged 1.91 points per 60 at 5 v 5. Burakovsky’s 1.98 p/60 was good for 44th in the NHL (minimum 750 minutes), which means he produced at the rate of a high-end 1st liner.
If he gets more ice time, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t, the points will follow.
