Colorado Avalanche 2015-16 Season Primer

Looking at the Colorado Avalanche heading into this season – outlook, potential lines, roster, top prospects, draft history, stats and season schedule.

Projected 2015-16 Range: Playoff Chances: Bubble
2014-15 record: 39-31-12, 90 points
Where they finished: 7th in the Central Division, 11^th in the Western Conference, 21^st in the league

Player Salaries: $63,184,760 (25)
Cap Payroll: $63,540,000
Bonuses: $3,935,000
Cap Space: $8,215,240
Forwards: $37,738,000 (15)
Defensemen: $19,394,000 (8)
Goalies: $7,350,000 (2)

In: Blake Comeau, RW/LW (FA – Pit), Francois Beauchemin, D (FA – Ana), J.T. Compher, LW/C (T – Buf), Nikita Zadorov, D (T – Buf), Mikhail Grigorenko, W/C (T – Buf), Carl Soderberg, C/LW (T – Bos), Andreas Martinsen, W/C (FA-Europe)

Out: Mitchell Heard, C/LW (FA-Minors), Bruno Gervais, D (FA-Europe), Jordan Caron, LW/RW (FA – StL), Jamie McGinn, RW/LW (T – Buf), Ryan O’Reilly, C/W (T – Buf), Markus Lauridsen, D (FA-Europe)

Source: Sports Forecaster

Outlook for the Season:

The 14/15 season was a rough one for Avs fans, as the “Great Regression” predicted by the Fancy Stats Acolytes hit, and hit hard, as the former #1 team in the division dropped to #7 – dead last. Compounding their troubles was a wave of injuries culminating in a franchise record for man-games lost at 495. They proceeded to make their offseason moves with the hope that last season was just a fluke, keeping their core of coaches and players relatively untouched.

For 15/16, the biggest change will be the addition of Carl Soderberg as a top-six forward, replacing Ryan O’Reilly who was dealt to the Sabres once it became clear there was no chance of a contract extension that worked for both sides. Soderberg is almost guaranteed to have a better season with the Avalanche than his 43 points last year; in Boston, as he was relegated to the third line with Chris Kelly and Loui Eriksson. However, the Avs have taken a huge gamble with his contract, paying out $4.75 million per year to a 29-year old center with only two full NHL seasons, and if he doesn’t match O’Reilly’s scoring, it’s going to be a sore spot for years to come.

The other major change was the addition of Francois Beauchemin to the blue line, presumably to fill out their top pair and allow Erik Johnson to become the mobile, offense-minded defender he is meant to be. Beauchemin brings the weight of experience to a defensive core that has plenty of talent (Tyson Barrie put up 53 points last year and was a stand out for Team Canada in the World Championship), but lacks the record to prove it.

With Varlamov healthy, the Avalanche will once again be difficult to solve for the high powered offenses of their divisional rivals. Calvin Pickard, who earned several starts while Varlamov was injured, is likely to start the year in the AHL, but should give fans some peace of mind about the position.

Less talked about are the additions of Mikhail Grigorenko and Blake Comeau on offense, and Nikita Zadorov on defense. Both Grigorenko and Zadorov are former first round picks, and both are under 22 years old. Grigorenko spent most of his year with the Sabres’ AHL affiliate last season, notching only 6 points in 25 games for the Sabres. He signed a one year “put up or shut up” RFA extension with the Avs, and with his history with Patrick Roy (he played under him for three seasons in the QMJHL), he’s likely to get plenty of chances to show what he’s made of. Zadorov, on the other hand, played 60 games with the Sabres, spending some time on the power play, and had 15 points on the season. Because of Buffalo’s league worst play last year, it’s difficult to tell whether or not the big defender (he’s 6’5” and 220lbs) and Grigorenko were hindered by the team they was on, or just don’t have the abilities to put up good possession numbers.

Comeau, on the other hand, is a 29 year old vet projected to slot in on the 2nd or 3rd line. However, it remains to be seen if he can match his 14/15 point totals without playing on Malkin’s wing. Last year, he put up 0.51 points/game, but the average for his three years prior was only 0.25.

Are these additions enough to make the Avalanche a real threat in the Central? Probably not. A potential top line of Landeskog-Duchene-MacKinnon is scary, but their depth scoring is still lacking punch. While Varlamov can keep the Avs in the mix, it’s unlikely to put them higher than mid-pack, right in a tightly contested wildcard race in between the Central & Pacific divisions. If they stay healthy, they could make the playoffs, but a single key injury (like the one that sidelined Johnson for half of last season) and they could find themselves on the outside looking in.

Trending Up:

MacKinnon – After posting disappointing sophomore numbers, MacKinnon is looking to get back the scoring touch that made him a Calder winner. He’s spent the offseason working out with Sidney Crosby, which can only be good for his shot, and if he slides up to the top line as a winger, he’ll benefit from Matt Duchene’s creativity.

Trending Down:

Patrick Roy – After winning the Jack Adams in 13/14, Roy found himself at the bottom of the heap, and needing to climb back up. In a league (and specifically a cutthroat division) that keeps getting better at possession play, he has eschewed analytics, preferring to rely on old school methods of coaching and scouting. It’s been proven before that the Jack Adams typically goes to a coach riding high on “puck luck” (or PDO, as it’s termed by advanced stats) and so it’s going to be a big challenge for Roy to prove that he has the consistency of a winning coach.

Colorado ended 2^nd to last in the league in even strength score adjusted Corsi For% (a shot-based measure of possession) ahead of only the tanking Sabres, with a meager 42.7%. The rest of the Western Conference averaged 50.8%. The rest of the Central Division? 52.5%. It’s going to be very difficult to compete against the high powered offenses of the Central unless Roy can figure out how to get the puck away from his opponents more than 42% of the time.

Trade Deadline Outlook:

Look for a playoff-bubble Avalanche to bolster their depth scoring late in the season, adding second or third line wingers once they know whether or not their offseason additions will pay off in points.

However, if the playoffs look far off, the Avs could begin Rebuild: Part 3 by making drastic changes and trading pending UFA Erik Johnson or RFA Tyson Barrie, both of whom will be coveted by playoff bound teams but will require big contracts next season.

Projected 2015-16 Range: Playoff Chances: Bubble

Written by Carolyn Wilke, who can be found on twitter @Classlicity

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Potential line combinations, defensive pairings, and goalies.

Gabriel Landeskog – Matt Duchene – Jarome Iginla
Alex Tanguay – Carl Soderberg – Nathan MacKinnon
Blake Comeau – Mikhail Grigorenko – Dennis Everberg
Cody McLeod – John Mitchell – Marc-Andre Cliche
Joey Hishon

Francois Beauchemin – Erik Johnson
Nick Holden – Tyson Barrie
Nikita Zadorov – Nate Guenin
Brad Stuart – Zach Redmond

Semyon Varlamov
Reto Berra

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Some top Colorado Avalanche prospect lists heading into the season.

* Different sites have different guidelines for who is a ‘prospect.’ Dobber Prospects bases their rankings on future fantasy value.

1. Mikko Rantanen: Right Wing – 6’4” / 209 lbs – Rantanen has spent the past two seasons playing in a pro men’s league in Finland, but for a poor TPS team. Despite playing for the second worst team and against men, Rantanen still managed to impress, recording 28 points in 56 games, good enough for second in team scoring. Rantanen was a standout for team Finland at the World Juniors as well, scoring four goals in five games. Rantanen has the size and skill to jump right into the NHL, and having spent the past two seasons playing against men, he is ready to play pro in North America. Rantanen will audition for a NHL job at training camp, but may be best suited adjusting to the smaller ice in the AHL with Lake Erie.

2. Chris Bigras: Defence – 6’2” / 194 lbs – Bigras had an up and down season. With hopes of cracking the Avs team out of training camp, he was returned to junior for more seasoning. Then he failed to earn a return spot on team Canada at the World Juniors, but ended up having a breakout season with Owen Sound (OHL). He recorded a whopping 71 points in 62 games (remember he is a defenceman) before ending the year with a seven game audition with Lake Erie in the AHL, where he added four assists. The additions of Francois Beauchemin and Nikita Zadorov likely will dictate that Bigras will start his pro career in the AHL, but he is an important part of the Avalanche blueline.

3. Conner Bleackley: Centre – 6’0” / 192 lbs – Bleackley is future captain material for the Avalanche, but really projects as a third line centre at this point. He has to improve his strength and conditioning, but that will come in time as he has the heart of a competitor. His offensive upside is limited, but his willingness to score the greasy goals will be sufficient. With one more year of junior eligibility, Bleackley will return to Red Deer before turning pro where he will likely get more seasoning in the AHL. In the past two seasons, he has averaged .96 points per game and should be poised for a breakout offensive season.

4. Joey Hishon: Centre – 5’10” / 175 lbs – Injuries have stunted the former first round pick of the Avalanche, as he has missed almost two entire seasons with concussion injuries. In the past two years however, he has been getting back on track in the AHL, and last season he produced 36 points in 53 games. Hishon also made his NHL debut last year getting 13 games under his belt, recording two points. Coach Patrick Roy likes his skill and offensive upside, but size and injury history are concerns. Hishon will compete hard for a roster spot in training camp and should see more time in the NHL, but will likely benefit from more development time in the AHL.

5. Borna Rendulic: Right Wing – 6’2” / 200 lbs – The 23-year old Croatian free agent likely went under the radar playing hockey in Croatia, which would explain how he went undrafted in the NHL. After a breakout season in Finland where he scored 32 points in 57 games, he showed up on the Av’s radar and was signed to a NHL entry level contract. He made his NHL debut last season playing 11 games and securing his spot in history as the first Croatian born player to score a NHL goal. Rendulic also played 26 games in the AHL and will compete for a roster spot in training camp.

Expanded Top 10 Avalanche prospects with videos and stats can be read here. 

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Colorado Avalanche drafting from 2010 to 2015.

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

Colorado Avalanche’s 2014-15 player stats.

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule

A look at the Colorado Avalanche 2015-16 schedule.

Avalanche: Outlook | Lines and Roster | Top Prospects | Draft History | Stats | Schedule