Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
Free agency generally isn’t a route teams should be taking in order to improve their roster.
So few difference makers are available each year and the ones that do hit the open market are almost always significantly over compensated in both term and dollars.
In saying that there are always a handful of players that, for whatever reason, fly under the radar and end up putting pen to paper on contracts that don’t equal their worth.
Let’s take a look at a few of the best examples from this year’s crop (in no particular order):
P.A. Parenteau – One year, $1.25 million – New York Islanders
Parenteau has bounced around a fair bit in recent years, but he has been productive wherever he has played.
Even in his ‘down year’ with Montreal that resulted in him being bought out, he still posted 22 points in 56 games while seeing limited ice.
Over the last three seasons Parenteau has averaged 18 goals and 42 points per 82 games while suiting up for three different teams. He has missed some time with injury, and also was scratched a fair bit in Montreal, but those are solid totals.
Now, Parenteau is joining a playoff team, one he enjoyed the best days of his NHL career with, and will likely get to skate a regular shift alongside either John Tavares or Ryan Strome.
Don’t be surprised if Parenteau pots 15-20 goals again this season. If he does – and I’m confident he will, barring injury – he will be more than worth the price the Isles paid to bring him back.
Teddy Purcell – One year, $1.6 million – Los Angeles Kings
Given how hard it is to put up points in the NHL, Purcell seems like a steal at this price.
Purcell is coming off a 14 goal, 43 point season and has put up 40+ points (or scored at that pace) in five of the last six seasons.
He’s not really a play driver, but he holds his own in possession, too, as over the last couple years Edmonton/Florida have controlled 1.2% more of the shot attempts at 5 v 5 with Purcell on the ice.
In Los Angeles he’ll have some pretty good players to work with and I think his counting totals will reflect that.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts up another 40 points this season. If he does, he’ll be a steal at $1.6 million.
Brian Campbell – One year, $2 million – Chicago Blackhawks
Campbell may not produce offense like he used to, although he is still very capable, but he was probably the best bang for your buck signing in free agency.
He gets around the ice effectively, he logs big minutes against stiff competition and he hasn’t missed a regular season game in five years.
While he is 37 and his best days are behind him, a lot more good than bad still happens when he is on the ice.
To get a better gauge on just how good Campbell remains, I used data over the last two seasons as opposed to just 2015-16.
The Panthers dominated the game territorially – and significantly outscored their opponents as a result – with Campbell on the ice, while the team posted below average numbers in each category without Campbell. Playing with Aaron Ekblad surely helped his cause, but it definitely was not a one-way street.
If Campbell plays close to the level he has over the last couple years, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t, he will be worth at minimum double of what the Blackhawks are paying him.
Jonathan Marchessault – Two years, $750,000 per – Florida Panthers
The casual hockey fan probably hasn’t heard of Jonathan Marchessault, but there’s a good chance he’ll familiarize himself with more people moving forward.
He played in just 49 NHL games – with 45 of those coming last season – during his time with the Tampe Bay Lightning, but in that span he posted a respectable 19 points and 84 shots while seeing limited ice.
His underlying numbers have been quite good as he’s averaged 1.81 points per 60 minutes of 5 v 5 play while the Lightning controlled 53.5% of the shot attempts with him on the ice. The sample size is very small (~440 minutes) but the totals remain impressive nonetheless.
If he can sustain anywhere close to those numbers – in either possession or point production – over a larger sample size, he’ll easily be worth the small chunk of change he signed for.
Patrick Wiercioch – One year, $800,000 – Colorado Avalanche
Ottawa’s management team never seemed sold on Patrick Wiercioch but he was a pretty good defenseman during his time with the Senators and his numbers reflect that.
As you can see, the Senators controlled a larger portion of the shot attempts, scoring chances and goals with Wiercioch on the ice.
He won’t put up a ton of points, and is prone to the occasional head scratching turnover, but more good than bad consistently occurs when he is on the ice.
For an Avalanche team desperate for help on defense Wiercioch seems like a worthwhile investment.
