Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
Every year there are a handful of high-end players scheduled to hit free agency. While most end up re-signing with their current teams beforehand, the occasional big name slips through the cracks and at least tests the free agent waters (a la Steven Stamkos).
With that in mind let’s take a look at five of the top 2017 NHL free agents who could become available to the highest bidder in a year’s time.
Center – Joe Thornton – San Jose Sharks
Joe Thornton may be getting up there in age, but he is still an absolutely fantastic player.
Over the last two seasons Thornton has 147 points in 160 games. That puts him in a tie with Vladimir Tarasenko for 10th in scoring over that span and his .92 points per contest is good for 11th in the league. Of his 147 points, a league-leading 112 were assists.
What is impressive about Thornton is that, despite a lack of foot speed, he has tallied a ton of points at full-strength and isn’t simply relying on power play time to inflate his totals.
Over the same two-year span Thornton is 19th in 5 v 5 points with 76 and has averaged 2.08 points per 60 in that game state. Only 28 players have been more efficient 5 v 5 scorers, which is pretty crazy considering Thornton was 35 and 36 while amassing such totals.
While Thornton is an elite point producer, there’s much more to his game than that. He is an exceptional play driver, as evident by the San Jose Sharks’ numbers without him on the ice.
Thornton’s best days may be behind him, and father time catches up with everyone eventually, but he is still an excellent player and any team would be lucky to have him.
Left Winger – Brad Marchand – Boston Bruins
When you think of Brad Marchand the first thing that comes to mind is his ability to get under the skin of his opponents.
While he is certainly good at doing so, he is much more than just a pest.
Over the last three seasons Marchand has scored 86 goals while averaging .36 goals per game. Only 14 players scored more than Marchand in that span, while just 18 players have averaged more goals on a per game basis.
Some of the notables Marchand has averaged more goals (per game) than over the last few seasons: Taylor Hall, Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Jeff Carter, Filip Forsberg, Logan Couture, Claude Giroux and Blake Wheeler, among many others. He is an excellent goal scorer and is a lot better in that regard than most realize.
On top of his scoring prowess, he has also posted fantastic underlying numbers. Playing with Patrice Bergeron helps, obviously, but the Boston Bruins have been drastically better with Marchand on the ice.
Over the last three seasons the Bruins controlled a remarkable 57% of the shot attempts and 58.9% of the goals at 5 v 5 with Marchand. Without Marchand those numbers dip to 50.6% and 50.3% respectively.
He is an impact player and will be paid accordingly. Whether it’s with the Bruins or elsewhere remains to be seen.
Defenseman – Brent Burns – San Jose Sharks
Over the last couple seasons only one defenseman – Erik Karlsson – has tallied more points than Brent Burns’ 135. No blue liner has scored more goals or recorded more shots on goal.
He is 2nd among defensemen in 5 v 5 points during that span, 2nd in 5 v 5 goals, 3rd in 5 v 5 points per 60 and 6th in 5 v 4 points per 60. In other words, he has been an elite producer regardless of the game state.
On top of his scoring prowess Burns has also been rock solid in possession as the Sharks have controlled more shot attempts at 5 v 5 with him on the ice than any other blue liner on the roster.
Like Thornton, Burns’ best days will be behind him if and when he hits the open market, but there would undoubtedly be no shortage in suitors for Burns.
There are very few game breakers in today’s NHL – particularly on defense – but Burns is one of them.
Defenseman – Kevin Shattenkirk – St. Louis Blues
In the event Kevin Shattenkirk hits the open market a year from now, which seems likely given the rumored state of contract talks, there should be plenty of interest.
Over the last two seasons Shattenkirk has contributed 88 points in 128 games while playing big minutes for the St. Louis Blues. Shattenkirk’s .69 points per game in that span ranks 8th among blue liners and ahead of the likes of Tyson Barrie, Dustin Byfuglien, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Shea Weber and Duncan Keith, among many others.
Shattenkirk hasn’t been a fantastic 5 v 5 point producer – he’s tied with Michael Del Zotto and Jason Garrison for 74th over the last couple seasons – but nobody has been able to match his power play efficiency.
From 2014-16 Shattenkirk averaged a ludicrous 7.45 points per 60 minutes of 5 v 4 play. Among the 74 defenseman to log at least 200 minutes in that game state over the last couple years, nobody has come remotely close to equaling those totals. John Carlson ranks a distant 2nd having averaged 5.38 points per 60 over ~315 minutes of work.
Shattenkirk isn’t an exceptional 5 v 5 player, but he certainly holds his own in that game state and more than makes up for any possible short comings with his dominance on the man advantage.
Goaltender – Steve Mason – Philadelphia Flyers
Steve Mason doesn’t have a great reputation because of the way his tenure in Columbus ended, but he’s been fantastic since going to Philadelphia.
Mason has posted a .917 save percentage or better in each of his three full seasons with the Flyers and has been particularly good over the last two.
From 2014-16 there were 24 goaltenders who logged at least 4,000 minutes of ice at 5 v 5. None of them posted a better save percentage in that game state than Steve Mason.
Mason’s .940 SV% in that span is well ahead of the next closest goaltenders Devan Dubnyk (.935 SV%) and Henrik Lundqvist (.939 SV%).
For perspective of just how good Mason has been at full-strength over the last couple seasons, Carey Price posted a .943 SV% at 5 v 5 during his ridiculous 2014-15 campaign that earned him a Vezina Trophy.
Giving goaltenders term and money is often a risky proposition but, if the last couple years are any indication, Mason may just be a guy worth investing in.
