Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
Every year NHL general managers line up to pay everyone and anyone they can get their hands on to try and improve their team via free agency.
While there are always a handful of players signed to value contracts that easily out perform, there are certainly more overpays than underpays.
Let’s take a look at a few of them from this year’s free agent frenzy:
David Backes – Boston Bruins (five years, $6 million per)
This contract in particular has potential to look real bad in a short period of time.
David Backes is still a useful player, but at 32 his best days are behind him. Backes is already showing serious signs of decline and that’s unlikely to change moving forward; especially given how poorly power forwards tend to age.
Backes just posted the lowest goals per 60 and points per 60 numbers (lockout year aside) at 5 v 5 since he entered the league and his goals/points per game totals have dropped in consecutive years.
Beyond his depreciating offensive game his underlying numbers are also heading south in a hurry.
Throughout much of Backes’ career the Blues controlled a larger percentage of the shot attempts and goals with Backes on the ice as opposed to on the bench. That has changed drastically, as evident by his totals over the last couple seasons. The Blues were worse in both categories with Backes on the ice.
Committing that kind of term and money to an aging, declining player in Backes will almost certainly prove disastrous for the Bruins – and sooner than later.
Jared Boll – Anaheim Ducks (two-years, $900,000 per)
I’ve had a lot of time to sit on this contract and it still puzzles me as much as it did when it happened.
Jared Boll has recorded more than seven points in a season just once since 2007-08 and was deemed expendable by a team that has made the playoffs once in 16 years. Not only did the Columbus Blue Jackets get rid of Boll, but they paid him to take his services elsewhere.
They were right in doing so, too.
Beyond his inability to muster up any kind of offense, his underlying numbers have been absolutely dreadful.
Over the last five seasons the Blue Jackets have controlled just 39.8% of the shot attempts at 5 v 5 with Boll on the ice. That ranks him 25th among 25 eligible Blue Jackets in that span (minimum 1,000 minutes). The Jackets were routinely out shot with Boll on the ice and his goals for numbers reflect that. Over the same five-year span the Jackets have scored 36%(!!) of the goals with Boll on the ice at 5 v 5. Again, that ranks him 25th among 25 eligible skaters.
Sure, he brings a physical presence but there are players who throw the body around and garner much better on-ice results.
Signing Boll won’t really hurt the Ducks’ cap situation, but he’ll sure hurt them on the ice.
Andrew Ladd – New York Islanders (seven-years, $5.5 million)
Andrew Ladd is a good player and the New York Islanders are a better team having signed him.
In saying that, he is not the player he once was and, at 30, is already noticeably on the decline.
Over the last four seasons his 5 v 5 points per 60 minutes played has gone from 2.63 (lockout shortened season) to 2.00, to 1.94 to 1.50. Unsurprisingly that drop in full-strength productions reflects in his counting totals as his 46 points last season was the lowest total he has posted (lockout year aside) since 2009.
On top of all else he was a negative possession player relative to the team for the first time dating back to the 2007-08 season.
So, he’s scoring at a lesser rate at 5 v 5, his raw counting totals are dropping and his possession numbers have taken a dip. Despite all that the Islanders elected to give him John Tavares money over a seven-year term.
Ladd is still a pretty good player, but that may not hold true for much longer. This contract looking bad for the Isles is not a matter of if but when.
