Written by Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell)
NHL teams combined to dish out more than $617 million on the first day of free agency.
There were some winners – notably teams that signed cheap, undervalued guys and elected not to give out massive dollars and term – but there were no shortage of losers.
Let’s take a look at a few.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins did make a couple nice moves on Friday signing Riley Nash to a two-year deal and re-upping defenseman John-Michael Liles.
There is a big elephant in the room, though. That elephant is David Backes and his five-year, $30 million contract.
Backes is still a pretty good player but his goal totals have dropped in consecutive years and his 5 v 5 play is definitely trending downward. His points per 60 minutes fell off a cliff this past season and, after years of consistently solid underlying numbers, the past two years the Blues have controlled a larger percentage of the shot attempts without him on the ice.
Committing five years to any 32-year-old is a risk. Committing that kind of term to a power forward at that age is a recipe for disaster.
By almost all objective measurements Backes’ play is heading in the wrong direction and, at his age, that’s unlikely to change moving forward.
New York Islanders
The normally savvy New York Islanders made a couple big bets on the first day of free agency that are unlikely to pay off.
The biggest of which was made on Andrew Ladd. The 30-year-old winger was given a seven-year, $38.5 million contract following a 25-goal, 45-point season.
Ladd is still an effective two-way player but, like Backes, he is starting to trend in the wrong direction.
Over the last four years Ladd’s points per 60 at 5 v 5 has dropped from 2.63 to 2.00 to 1.94 to 1.50.
Playing on a line with John Tavares will help his cause, but giving seven years to a player clearly on the decline isn’t a good idea; especially when said player will be pulling in $5.5 million per season.
To top it off, the Islanders also dished out a two-year deal to a 37-year-old possession anchor named Jason Chimera.
Over the last two seasons 473 players have logged at least 1,250 minutes at 5 v 5. Chimera ranks 456th among said players in Corsi For% relative to the team at -3.9. That, of course, means the Capitals were much better with Chimera off the ice.
They controlled 51.5% of the shot attempts at 5 v 5 without Chimera while that number dropped to 47.6% with Chimera.
He can provide some depth scoring but he probably won’t be a worthwhile investment for the Isles.
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks aren’t on this list due to bringing in bad players or overpaying anyone – although six years for a 30-year-old is risky – but rather because their moves will help them do what they’ve done for years: tread water.
I like Loui Eriksson, but he doesn’t make the Canucks a Cup contender. Heck, I don’t think he makes them a contender for a playoff spot.
The Canucks are a very bland team. They have a mediocre and unexciting NHL product and their prospect system, while improving, is nothing special.
They need nothing more than to rebuild/retool and the signing of Eriksson signals that isn’t going to happen.
The Canucks should be bottoming out and gunning for Nolan Patrick at the top of next year’s draft. Instead they’re going to hope that luck is on their side and they can somehow squeeze into a playoff spot before being bounced in the 1st round.
That’s not a good way to do business.
